Mon May 16 2022 UTC Day 1 Other Outlook

Forecasts are only issued when *notable* severe weather is expected

Day 1

Communities in the Risk Area

5/5

4/5

3/5

2/5

Ottawa, ON...Cornwall, ON...Kingston, ON...Montreal, QC...Mont-Laurier, QC

1/5

Casey, QC...Saguenay, QC...Quebec City, QC...Trois-Rivières

Brief Summary

...Southern Quebec/Eastern Ontario...
Thunderstorms, isolated to start - changing to scattered, will develop across Far Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec through the afternoon bringing an elevated risk for damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two.

The biggest threat will be accompanying damaging winds up to 100km/h (15%), large hail of 1.5 to 2cm (15%) and the mentioned tornado threat (2%). The corridor between Morrisburg (ON) and Montreal (QC) has the greatest potential to see severe and rotating storms.

The frequent nature of the storms into the afternoon will also lead to a localized flooding risk across the region.

Throughout the afternoon, the system currently over Southwestern Ontario will move east, flushing in cooler air and eliminating the severe threat. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible along the initial front of the system (5-10% risk level).

...Saguenay - Quebec City Region...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the late afternoon and evening hours. These thunderstorms should remain non-severe with a non-zero chance for a briefly severe cell.

As the system currently over Southwestern Ontario moves into the region and the storms over Southern Quebec move eastward, an isolated severe wind threat will present itself along the front, combining with any remaining storms in the region.

These two factors combined result in the 5% wind threat for the region.

...Southwestern Ontario...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Southwestern Ontario, south and southeast of Lake Huron, through the afternoon hours. Confidence is not high enough to introduce severe levels, however, briefly severe wind gusts and hail may be possible. Localized flooding is possible.

While a tornado threat doesn't overly present itself, these storms will feature the risk of funnel clouds. An isolated landspout tornado cannot be completely ruled out, however, the confidence is not high enough to introduce a 2% risk level.

The environment and storms will be monitored to determine whether an update to the forecast is required.

...Alberta/Saskatchewan...
Isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon and evening. An isolated funnel cloud may occur.

Forecast Issued At

Newfoundland:

5/16/2022, 12:30:00 PM

Atlantic:

Eastern:

5/16/2022, 12:00:00 PM

5/16/2022, 11:00:00 AM

Central:

5/16/2022, 10:00:00 AM

Saskatchewan:

5/16/2022, 9:00:00 AM

Mountain:

5/16/2022, 9:00:00 AM

Pacific:

5/16/2022, 8:00:00 AM

Yukon:

5/16/2022, 8:00:00 AM