We are currently watching the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario, including portions of Far Northern Ontario.
We are expecting a line of thunderstorms to form south and east of Southern Lake Winnipeg extending to the United States border. This line of thunderstorms is expected to move east towards and into Northwestern Ontario. This line may extend further northeast of Lake Winnipeg towards Little Grand Rapids. This line will start as multiple single cells before quickly merging into a line of storms. In Ontario, these storms will push across the Red Lake/Kenora regions before weakening around and east of Nestor Falls, Vermillion Bay, Ears Falls, and Pikangikum. There is some question how far north this risk extends, therefore, we have not highlighted areas from Big Trout Lake to Sandy Lake. This described region is included in the moderate/yellow/3 region. The main threats in this region include damaging wind gusts near or over 100km/h, large hail between 2-4cm in diameter and heavy rain producing 50mm or more in a short period of time. In the initial stages of storm development or storms which remain isolated, an isolated tornado threat may develop throughout the region, especially near the Ontario/Manitoba border.
In Manitoba, there is a low risk of storm develop slightly further north and west of the current expected development range. This is highlighted in the low/green/2 risk which includes Charron Lake, Bloodvein, Lundar, Winnipeg, and Morden. Into Ontario, the risk is lower for severe thunderstorms further east of the previously listed regions. This includes Fort Frances, Dryden, Sioux Lookout, Slate Falls, Cat Lake, and Deer Lake. These areas may see severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon into the evening and overnight, although the risk is low, especially further east.
Finally, non-severe thunderstorms are expected across a small portion of Manitoba and all of Far Northern Ontario with the risk extending south into Northwestern Ontario. These thunderstorms should remain all non-severe although a very isolated thunderstorm may become strong or even sub-severe/severe. Into Ontario, areas near Big Trout Lake, Sandy Lake, Kingfisher Lake, and Sachigo Lake, isolated severe storms may develop across this region, mainly due to rainfall (over 50mm in a short period of time). This is questionable, hence, we have left this under the 'mainly non-severe' risk.
Please let us know what you're experiencing!