We are watching a large weather system cross the Midwestern United States this evening as it produces heavy snow (measured in feet) and severe thunderstorms (and tornadoes) across the region. This system is expected to move into Southern Ontario tomorrow throughout the day and bring heavy rain and strong winds to Southern Ontario with freezing rain in Eastern/Central Ontario. In Northeastern Ontario, gusty winds and heavy snow could produce blizzard or near-blizzard conditions throughout the day on Wednesday into Thursday with school closures and road closures expected.
Snow:
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 30cm. In Northeastern Ontario, this extends from Lake Superior to Quebec including everything in between. This would include Chapleau, Temiskaming Shores, Temagami, Sudbury, Gogama, Ranger Lake, and Sault Ste. Marie. Snowfall amounts between 15-20cm are possibly closer to the shores of the North Channel and Lake Superior with snowfall totals at or even above 30cm towards 40cm possible for the central and eastern regions (Ruel-Gogama east towards Englehart/Temiskaming Shores).
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 20cm. This includes the direct shores of Lake Superior near Agawa Bay and Montreal River Harbour. This also includes a large portion of Pukaskwa Park extending into Wawa, Peterbell, Timmins and Kirkland Lake. Snowfall amounts will be most towards Kirkland Lake and Wawa and less towards Matheson and Peterbell. The yellow region also includes areas along the North Channel extending into Algonquin. This includes Killarney, Monetville, North Bay, Mattawa, and Algonquin Park, including places such as Brent. Areas towards Killarney and North Bay, snowfall amounts towards 15-20cm are possible. Towards Algonquin Park extending towards Mattawa and Northern Manitoulin Island such as Gore Bay and Little Current, snowfall amounts closer to 10-15cm are possible due to rain/freezing rain.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This extends from Cloud Bay in Northwestern Ontario where 6-8cm are possible towards White River and Iroquois Falls where 5-10cm is possible. This also includes portions of Southern Ontario such as South River and Pembroke. Snowfall totals between 5-10cm are possible.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between falling snow with no accumulations and up to 5cm. This includes the remaining portions of Northern Ontario as well as portions of Eastern Ontario and a large portion of Southwestern Ontario as some light snow is possible due to the temperature dropping changing the light rain into some light snow.
Wind gusts in Northeastern Ontario will be gusting between 60-80km/h along the North Channel extending into Lake Superior and areas east of the lake. Along the Quebec border, wind gusts between 50 and 70km/h are possible. Significant blowing snow is possible and expected with blizzard or near-blizzard conditions. Hazardous travel is expected along a large portion of Highway 17 from Wawa to Mattawa, Highway 101 from Wawa to the Quebec Border, Highway 11 from South River to Timmins, as well as Highway 129, Highway 144, Highway 66, Highway 65, and Highway 64...to name a few. Road closures are possible and likely. Bus cancellations and school closures are expected on Wednesday and likely on Thursday as well.
Wind:
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect peak wind gusts between 80 and 100km/h. This includes the southern shores of Manitoulin Island and around the tip of the Bruce Peninsula. This also includes a large patch of Lake Erie as well as the shores such as Pelee Island, Rondeau Park, Port Dover, and Niagara Falls. Waves on Lake Erie could be rather high between 10 and 15 feet.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect peak wind gusts between 70 and 85km/h. This includes a large portion of Southwestern Ontario extending from Collingwood, Shelburne, and Kitchener westward to Lake Huron as well as Grimsby through to Brantford including everything south. This also includes much of Northern Ontario as described in the 'snow' section. The eastern side of Georgian Bay is also included such as Parry Sound and Britt. The majority of the wind gusts will peak between 75 and 80km/h although a few coastal areas and local pockets inland could reach up to 85km/h. An isolated gust to 90km/h is possible but not expected. This region also includes Prince Edward County extending into Kingston and Belleville. Wind gusts between 75 and 85km/h are possible with isolated gusts to 90km/h at times.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect peak wind gusts between 50 and 70km/h. Almost all of the highlighted places will see peak gusts between 50 and 60km/h also a pocket between Ottawa and Hawkesbury extending towards Pembroke, Algonquin Park and North Bay could see gusts up to 70km/h. Extending from Prescott and Brockville towards Bancroft and Apsley, wind gusts near 50km/h or even slightly below are possible to be the peak wind gusts.
Freezing Rain:
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect ice accretion up between 4-7mm. This includes a large portion of Algonquin Park. Isolated areas south of this region towards Barry's Bay could also locally see these accretion totals, although less likely.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect ice accretion between 2 and 5mm. This extends from North Bay through to South River, Madawaska and Barry's Bay. Isolated pockets of 2-4mm responsible towards Calabogie and Bancroft as well as between Espanola and Spanish.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can expect a trace to 2mm of ice accretion. This extends from Blind River through to Killarney, Monetville, Burk's Falls, Bancroft, Calabogie, Renfrew, Pembroke, Deep River, and Mattawa.
Gusty winds between 50-75km/h could result in local power outages. As the freezing rain will change to snow for portions of Algonquin Park, hazardous travel is possible.
Rain:
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect rainfall totals between 30 and 40mm with pockets up to 50mm. This includes Tobermory, South Baymouth, Britt, and Bayfield Inlet. Rain may be heavy at times. An isolated thunderstorm may even be possible.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect rainfall totals between 10-20mm across Eastern, portions of Central Ontario and along the shores of Lake Ontario, including Toronto, Newmarket, Vaughan, and Oakville. Rainfall totals between 15-30mm are possible across Southwestern Ontario extending into Central Ontario as isolated thunderstorms may be embedded in the rain showers.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can expect rainfall totals less than 10mm. This includes areas along the North Channel such as Blind River and Killarney as well as portions of Eastern Ontario such as Algonquin Park, Barry's Bay, and Renfrew. Prince Edward County towards Kingston and Belleville, as well as the Niagara region, are also included in this region.
We will continue to monitor the system and will update as needed.
Our snow day forecast and canceled buses/closed schools can be found here.