Updated: Feb 8, 2019
Southern Ontario (Wednesday to Thursday Information): https://www.weatherwatch.space/post/potential-ice-storm-to-impact-portions-of-southern-ontario We are tracking a low-pressure system expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy snow in Northern Ontario with significant freezing rain in Northeastern Ontario.
Beginning in the early morning hours on Thursday, February 7th, 2019, light to moderate snow is expected to develop across portions of Northwestern Ontario extending between Thunder Bay and Kenora. As the day progresses, near dawn, the moderate snowfall will continue pushing eastwards past Lake Nipigon extending towards Marathon and Nakina including Nipigon and Armstrong. As the system nears the region, the snow will become more widespread expanding from James Bay to the Manitoba border including much of Northwestern and Northeastern Ontario with minor effects on the Far North. Moderate to heavy freezing rain will begin to push into the southern portions of Northeastern Ontario. By the mid-evening, heavy snow will be likely across portions of Northeastern Ontario with moderate freezing rain. The moderate snow will slowly become light snow over portions of Northwestern Ontario extending towards the northeast including Nakina and Beardmore. As the night progresses, moderate snow will become scattered flurries across the west extending in Northeastern Ontario with moderate to heavy snow between Timmins and Moosonee and patches of snow along the Quebec border. Towards North Bay and Temagami, localized pockets of freezing rain may linger. By the mid-morning hours, light to moderate snow will continue in Far Northern Ontario with the major impacts passing the region into Quebec.
Beginning Thursday night lasting into Friday, widespread winds between 40-60km/h are expected to develop across Northern Ontario. Widespread blowing snow and at times, near-blizzard conditions will be possible. Towards the southern portions of Northeastern Ontario, strong winds between 60-80km/h, locally 90km/h are possible. With the significant ice expected, widespread power outages are possible and hazardous driving conditions.
Road closures are possible over the coming days.
Freezing Rain Accretion + Ice Pellet Accumulations Totals:
Blue or '1':
Areas marked in blue or with a '1' can expect a trace of freezing rain or none at all. Most of Eastern and South Central Ontario extending into Southwestern Ontario the GTA. In Northeastern Ontario, this includes Powassan and areas south of Lake Nipissing. Towards the north, in a thin line including Chapleau, Timmins and Iroquois Falls, a trace of freezing rain or none at all is possible. There is some uncertainty in how far north the system will push. Depending on the tracks exact location, this freezing rain to heavy snow line could shift. As of now, it could shift as low as Kirkland Lake, Sultan and Montreal River Harbour or as far north as Cochrane, Nicholson, and Wawa.
Green or '2':
Areas marked in the green or with a '2' can expect a light amount of freezing rain with totals between 2-5mm of ice accretion. This area includes Agawa Bay, Montreal River Harbour, Gogama, Kirkland Lake, North Bay, Mattawa and the shores of the Ottawa River and Monetville. These areas could see some light to at times moderate freezing rain before a transition over to rain, snow or light freezing drizzle. The northern line could shift depending on the exact track of the low. The area could shift as north as Chapleau, Timmins and Iroquois Falls or as far south as Temiskaming Shores, Ruel and Searchmont.
Yellow or '3':
Areas marked in the yellow or with a '3' can expect a moderate amount of freezing rain with totals between 5-10mm of ice accretion. This includes Sault Ste. Marie, Temiskaming Shores, Temagami, and Searchmont. Moderate to strong wind gusts towards 60-80m/h with local gusts towards 90km/h on Thursday night into Friday could lead to widespread power outages. The ice storm level criteria could be met with the expected winds despite the low (or at least moderate) amount of forecasted ice. This area could compress a little on the edge and push into towards Manitoulin Island extending north to Sudbury and Ranger Lake, therefore, local amounts as low as 2mm are possible. Isolated patches could see local amounts towards 12mm of ice accretion as well.
Orange or '4':
Areas marked in the orange or with a '4' can expect the a moderate to significant amount of freezing rain with totals between 10-15mm of ice accretion. This includes Manitoulin Island, Espanola, Ranger Lake, Sudbury, and Elliott Lake. A widespread pocket of 8-12mm of ice is possible throughout this region with multiple isolated areas possibly reaching towards 20mm. Local amounts as low as 5mm are possible due to 'banding' within the heavy-moderate-light level precipitations. This area could compress towards Manitoulin Island with the yellow area or the region marked with a '3' filling into the region. The exact track is unknown and will change these local variables, slightly.
Snowfall Forecast Totals:
Blue or '1':
Areas marked in blue or with a '1' can expect less than 5cm of snow. This includes areas north of Grassy Narrows, Ears Falls, Slate Falls, and Lansdowne House. Towards the south, local snow or ice pellets may leave a trace of snow over Temiskaming Shores, Ruel, Blind River, Thessalon, and Englehart. This area may shift slightly further north over Kirkland Lake, Gogama and Sault Ste. Marie depending on the exact track of the system.
Green or '2':
Areas marked in the green or with a '2' can expect between 5 to 10cm of snow. This includes Kenora, Perrault Falls, Pickle Lake, and Lansdowne House. Towards the south, this includes Kirkland Lake, Ranger Lake, Sault Ste. Marie and Gogama. This is mainly due to the threat of ice pellets before the expected freezing rain although as the system approaches, a period of snow may be possible over the region. Towards the southern portions of Northeastern Ontario, the pocket of 5 to 10cm may be slightly further north depending on the systems track. This would lay the 5 to 10cm of snow over Matheson, Sultan, and Batchawana Bay.
Yellow or '3':
Areas marked in the yellow or with a '3' can expect between 10 to 20cm of snow. Areas expected to get between 10 to 15cm of snow include Morson, Sioux Lookout, Savant Lake, Fort Hope, Missisa Lake, Attawapiskat and Ignace This also includes Searchmont. Areas further east towards Fort Frances, English River, Atikokan, Raith, Armstrong, and Ogoki could see between 12 to 18cm of snow, this area also includes Sultan and Matheson. Finally, areas between 15 and 20cm of snow, locally 20 to 35cm include Thunder Bay, Dorion, Gull Bay, and Upsala. This also includes Timmins. Areas between Timmins, Matheson, Sultan, and Searchmont may see locally fewer amounts between 8-12cm of snow or slightly more between 18 and 24cm of snow depending on the exact track of the system.
Orange or '4':
Areas marked in the orange or with a '4' can expect between 15 to 30cm of snow. This includes a wide area across Northern Ontario including Nipigon, Nakina, Jellicoe, Agawa Bay, Chapleau, Foleyet, and Cochrane. Areas which are expected to see between 20 and 30cm but could locally see amounts as high as 40 to 50cm include Wawa, Carmat, Moosonee, Kesagami Park, Hearst, Peterbell, White River, Ameson and Hornpayne. Models are in agreement that 8-12" or 20 to 30cm of snow are possible in this region. Areas in the 'Area of interest' or the outlined area could see amounts towards 16 or 20" which is 40 to 50cm.