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Strong Snow Squalls to Produce Significant Snowfall (> 25cm); Locally 40cm Possible

Another round of heavy snow set to impact portions of Southern Ontario after the first significant snowstorm of the season. Widespread snowfall of 10-15cm has been reported with pockets in the 15-25cm range across the southern portion of the province. Now, snow squalls!

Snowfall Forecast, for Southern Ontario. Issued November 12th, 2019.
Snowfall Forecast, for Southern Ontario. Issued November 12th, 2019.

This morning (Tuesday), we received reports of numerous snowfall reports indicating between 25 and 40cm had fallen to areas south of Lake Huron due to a strong snow squall producing 3-6cm/hour. As the day continues, this cluster of squalls is likely to push northeast into Huron/Perth/Middlesex Counties before dissipating. Into the mid-late afternoon, another cluster of snow squalls will develop off of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and will shift around in the evening for taking a mainly stationary place. Snowfall totals will range in the 15-20cm for most although pockets of 15-30cm are possible.

When the squalls set into place, snowfall totals near 30cm are likely with pockets towards 40cm. Off of Lake Huron, there is some unknown confidence as to where the snow squall will finally become stationary. The are two current options:

  1. Extending from Tiverton inland towards Hanover

  2. Extending from Kincardine towards Teeswater/Wingham

We have currently went with a mix of both possible outcomes highlighting them in the same region. Overall, 20-30cm is likely with the stationary squall location reaching those higher amounts towards 40cm. Snowfall totals near or over 50cm are possible in the stationary squall location.

Please review the per-legend discussion below.

Side Note: This forecast is valid beginning around the 1-3pm mark, therefore, this does not include any morning snowfall south of Lake Huron.


Areas in red and marked with a '5' can expect snowfall totals between 20 and 40cm. This region extends from Lake Huron in the Tiverton/Port Elgin area south to Amberley (including Kincardine) extending inland towards Wingham, Lucknow and Walkerton. In this region, snowfall totals of 20-30cm are expected with higher amounts between 25 and 40cm, locally 50cm or higher in the stationary squall. As mentioned above, the exact location is yet to be determined as there are a few possible options. This post will be updated when one of the options has been finalized in the evening.

Areas in orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 30cm. This region extends from Lake Huron around Saugeen Shores inland towards Hanover, Listowel and Port Albert. In this region, snowfall totals will range between 15 and 20cm with locally higher amounts near 25cm. Depending on the exact strength and location of the 'primary' squall, snowfall totals as high as or slightly over 30cm are possible. Towards the south extending from Goderich along Highway 8 through Clinton, Seaforth, and Mitchell, extending to Northern Stratford, snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm are likely as the squalls from the south make a push north. Isolated pockets around and slightly over 20cm are possible. Around Georgian Bay, snowfall totals 20 and 30cm are expected from Georgian Bay near Collingwood inland towards Barrie, Hillsdale, Sutton, and Wyevale. Isolated snowfall totals above 30cm are possible from the area of interest region towards Barrie, although, confidence is highest in the area of interest. To the west near the Blue Mountains and Meaford, snowfall totals between 15 and 25cm are possible.

Areas in yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 20cm. This region extends from Saugeen Shores to Owen Sound where around 15cm is possible. Extending south of Meaford near Walters Falls, an area of 10-15cm is likely. On the eastern side of Lake Simcoe, snowfall totals between 10 and 20cm are possible. This would include Pefferlaw and Keswick. Finally, areas inland from Lake Huron including Mount Forest, Milverton, Bayfield, and Stratford can expect snowfall totals in the 10-20cm range with more snow towards Mount Forest and less towards Bayfield.

Areas in green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This includes Midland, Orillia, and Newmarket. This also includes Markdale, Arthur, Kitchener, and Grand Bend. Most areas should see around 3-6cm although locally higher amounts up to 10cm are possible in Simcoe and Grey Counties.

Areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals under 5cm. This includes a large portion of Southern and Northeastern Ontario. Snowfall amounts should be limited to a trace to just flurries in the air for most people.


Road closures will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening on Tuesday and morning on Thursday with school closures possible Wednesday morning.

Check back between 8pm and 12am for our snow day forecast. It will be posted on our pages but uploaded to the website first, this can be found here:

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