We are currently watching the risk for some morning thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, over portions of Extreme Southern Ontario. Besides this, widespread non-severe thunderstorms are possible in Southern and Northeastern Ontario before a more widespread, severe thunderstorm threat develops in the afternoon across Central and Eastern Ontario, and possibly the GTA and Golden Horseshoe regions.
Into the early morning hours on Thursday, isolated showers and thunderstorms may move over portions of Northeastern Ontario in the Elliot Lake/Sudbury/Manitoulin region. Into the morning hours (5-8am), a round of showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, may move across portions of Extreme Southern Ontario.
There is some question as to how strong these storms will be and how far north they will impact. Current indications suggest a line from Sarnia towards London and Port Dover and southward may see some strong to severe storms. There is the risk to extend slightly further north into the Dunnville and Fort Erie region, although, we think this is less likely. We have highlighted this 'possible' region in the 'area of interest.' The main threats will these storms will include gusty winds near 90km/h and small-sized hail.
Besides this severe risk, scattered non-severe showers and a few thunderstorms appear possible across the remaining portion of Southwestern Ontario, the GTA and into Central Ontario, including the northern portions of Eastern Ontario.
Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement ahead of these thunderstorms in portions of the Extreme South.
Update for the afternoon and evening: https://www.weatherwatch.space/post/severe-thunderstorm-threat-across-portions-of-ontario-and-quebec-isolated-tornado-risk
As we look ahead into the afternoon and evening, we are looking for a risk of severe thunderstorms south of a line extending from Pembroke to Brighton including Fort Erie. There is a questionable risk which extends north of this line but south of a line from Stonecliffe towards Haliburton, Vaughan, Brampton, Brantford, and Long Point. We will be creating a separate forecast for this risk in the late morning hours on Thursday. All severe weather threats appear to be possible including a tornado threat in the late afternoon into the early evening across portions of Eastern Ontario from Ottawa to Kingston and areas further east.
We will be watching closely as certain forecasts models display the risk much further south and limit the risks to a Kingston-Brockville-Cornwall corridor.
Please let us know what your experiencing!