We have been monitoring the risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and Alberta this morning and afternoon.
After reviewing some afternoon information with relation to the tornado watch which Environment Canada has issued across portions of Northwestern Ontario and Southeastern Manitoba, we have upgraded our risk from moderate (3) to strong (4).
Original Forecast for Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario; Current Forecast for Alberta, Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec: https://www.weatherwatch.space/post/severe-thunderstorms-expected-across-ontario-quebec-and-manitoba-isolated-tornadoes-damaging-wind
Updated Forecast: Northern Ontario/Southern Manitoba:
Areas in orange and marked with a '4' can expect a strong risk for severe thunderstorms. In Ontario, this region includes extends from Werner Lake through to Morson, including Kenora. In Manitoba, this region extends from Nopiming Park through to Oakbank and Morris, including Emerson, Whitemouth and Buffalo Point. The main threats in this region include heavy rain over 50mm, damaging winds between 70 and 100km/h, locally 110km/h and moderate to large-sized hail between 1 and 3cm. Isolated tornadoes are possible in this region. This region is included in the tornado watch. The strongest tornado risk extends from Nopiming Park and Werner Lake through to Ste. Anne, including Morris and Badger. Not all highlighted areas will see thunderstorms, let alone a tornado.
Areas in yellow and marked with a '3' can expect a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms. In Ontario, this region includes Woodland Caribou Park through to Red Lake and Vermillion Bay, including Fort Frances and Sioux Narrows. In Manitoba, this region extends from near Little Grand Rapids through to Pine Dock, Lundar and Cartwright, including Portage la Prairie and Winnipeg. The main threats in this region include heavy rain over 50mm, damaging winds between 70 and 100km/h, locally 110km/h and moderate to large-sized hail between 1 and 3cm. Portions of this region are included in the tornado watch. An isolated tornado or two is possible in this region. The strongest tornado risk extends from Nopiming Park and Werner Lake through to Winnipeg and Oakbank. Not all highlighted areas will see thunderstorms, let alone a tornado.
Areas in green and marked with a '2' can expect a low risk for severe thunderstorms. In Ontario, this includes an area extending from Pikganikum inland towards Uchi Lake and Sioux Lookout, extending to Ignace and Minecentre, including Ears Falls and Dryden. It is questionable whether thunderstorms, especially severe storms, will even make it this far into Northern Ontario, although, the risk is there. In Manitoba, this risk extends south of a line which runs from Charron Lake through to Darson Bay. The main threats in this region include heavy rain over 40mm, damaging winds between 70 and 90km/h, locally 100km/h and moderate to large sized hail between 1 and 2cm. An isolated tornado is possible in this region, especially from Pikangikum through to Perrault Falls. Much of Southern Manitoba, especially southwestern and western Manitoba, will not likely see any storms due to how localized the thunderstorms are. Either way, we have still highlighted the area for the risk of one or two isolated severe thunderstorms.
Elsewhere, areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect non-severe thunderstorms.
These thunderstorms will mainly affect this region from the late afternoon into the evening. We will be monitoring the risks and alerts issued today.