We are tracking a significant snowstorm which is expected to impact a large portion of Southern Ontario and into Northeastern Ontario.
Snowfall:
Areas in the pink and marked with a '6' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 25cm of snow. This includes a large portion of Northeastern Ontario from Sault Ste. Marie through to Espanola and Sudbury extending north towards Ranger Lake and Montreal River Harbour. Widespread 15-20cm can be expected although there will be numerous pockets to 25cm. Isolated pockets towards 30cm can be expected across the region as well. This also includes areas in and near Pigeon River towards Northwestern Ontario.
Areas in the red and marked with a '5' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm. In Northwestern Ontario, this extends from Cloud Bay through to La Verendrye Park where up to 20cm is possible. In Northeastern Ontario, this extends from Wawa through to Chapleau, Gogama, Temagami, Thorne, North Bay and Manitoulin Island. Across the region, a widespread 15cm is likely with 20cm most likely towards the pink (6) region. Up to 25 and 30cm is possible across Manitoulin Island. through to West Nipissing although the best risk for 25-30cm is towards the north into Sudbury and Elliot Lake.
In Southern Ontario, this includes a large portion of Eastern Ontario from Kingston through to Sharbot Lake and Tweed over towards Orillia, Collingwood, and the Bruce Peninsula. This also includes Bancroft, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Ottawa, Brockville, and Cornwall. A widespread 15-20cm is expected although areas of up to 25cm are possible across the region. Across Eastern Ontario, isolated pockets towards 25 and 30cm are possible especially from Bancroft over to Burk's Falls as well as along the New York border from Cornwall to Kingston.
Areas near Collingwood and Meaford will also only see up to 20cm from the system snow with lake enhancement pushing towards 25cm. Areas towards the south towards the Dundalk Highlands may also see up to 25cm from locally enhanced snowfall.
Areas in Southwestern Ontario from Kincardine through to Mount Forest extending to Kitchener, Stratford, Exeter, Goderich, Listowel, and Wingham can expect 16-22cm from the system with another 5-15cm from lake-effect snow and the one or two solid, but brief squall bands. Total snowfall totals up to or possibly even over 30cm are possible although we are expecting only a widespread 15-25cm including the localized totals, hence the forecast totals in the map. Snowfall totals over 30cm will be highly localized to the central regions of Huron-Perth counties.
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm. This includes a large portion of Southern Ontario extending from Windsor and Sarnia through to London, Toronto, Owen Sound, Barrie, and Belleville. Most areas will see only up to 15cm although 15 to 20cm is certainly possible. Areas closer towards Barrie towards Newmarket extending down into the southern GTA as well as into Lambton County and the Chatham-Kent region may see only between 10 and 15cm.
Areas north of Lake Ontario from Belleville through to Oshawa may see locally higher totals due to lake-enhancement up to 25cm although lake-enhancement appears unlikely due to atmospheric conditions.
If the system can push further north than currently expected, which is possible, may limit snowfall totals to only 10-15cm. Despite all these conditions, most places should range between 12 and 18cm for the event either way.
In Northern Ontario, this region extends from Cobalt through to Dubreuilville and over to Terrace Bay, Thunder Bay, Kakabeka Falls, Fort Frances, Morson, Kenora, Grassy Narrows, and Pikangikum. Areas across the region will see up to 15cm for most although 15 to 20cm will be possible for areas around Lake Superior towards Terrace Bay and Thunder Bay and locally between 15 and 20cm near Kenora through to Pikangikum.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals near 15cm. In Southern Ontario, this extends from lakeshore-Toronto through to Hamilton, Delhi, Dunnville, and Brantford. Most areas will see near 15cm across this region with locally less towards 10cm possible near Niagara and locally up to 20cm towards Brantford and into Toronto. In Northern Ontario, this extends from Englehart through to Foleyet over to White River and towards Nipigon. A widespread 15cm is likely. Into Northwestern Ontario, areas towards Trout Lake and Red Lake over to Ears Falls, Dryden, Ignace, Upsala, and Atikokan can expect a widespread 15cm. Isolated pockets to 20cm are possible in this region. Towards the north near Lac Seul, amounts may be reduced to only near 10cm.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 7.5cm or 3" and 15cm. In Southern Ontario, this includes Fort Erie and Niagara Falls which can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm. In Northern Ontario, this includes Matheson over to Timmins and Hornepayne. A widespread 7.5 to 12cm can be expected. Into North-Central and Northwestern Ontario from Longlac through to Armstrong, Gull Bay, Slate Falls, Pickle Lake, and Fort Hope can expect a scattered 10cm with pockets of mixing 6-8cm and pockets to 12-14cm.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can expect a trace to 5cm. This extends from Cochrane and Kapuskasing over to Pagwa. In these areas, up to 5cm is likely with pockets towards 10cm. Areas north of this region towards Moosonee and Ogoki can only expect up to a trace.
Rainfall:
Snow may make a brief (2-4 hours) changeover to rain into the late afternoon for areas from Windsor and Sarnia extending towards Grand Bend-London-Delhi as well as the Lake Erie shorelines towards Long Point. Rainfall totals will only range between 2-5mm are most with local pockets towards 4-7mm into Essex County.
Wind:
Areas across the region will see a widespread 40-60km/h and will result in widespread blowing snow. The worst of the conditions is into Saturday evening. Areas towards Niagara, Dunnville, and Long Point may see wind gusts between 80 and 100km/h with locally higher gusts up to 105km/h towards Long Point and Fort Erie. Widespread blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible. This has resulted in widespread snowfall warnings and winter storm warnings into portions of Northeastern Ontario. Conditions will be locally hazardous. For areas that don't see rain, blowing snow will be more significant.