Updated: Feb 29
We are watching a dangerous snow squall setup across the Great Lakes which is expected to last from Thursday through to Saturday. Widespread blowing snow will result in blizzard-like conditions alongside fact accumulating snowfall. Road closures are expected as roads may become impassable.
Notice: A very slight change in the position of the snow squalls will make a significant impact on the amount of snowfall that falls in portions of the region.
Update as of 6am Friday: It appears the main squall is/has set up slightly further north than shown in our pink region. Expect those totals in the pink to be pushed up another 15-30km towards Tara-Chatsworth-Markdale-Creemore regions. The squall is expected to shift south again throughout the day.
Snowfall forecast information is found below...
Snowfall rates will peak between 5 and 10cm per hour with 1-2cm/h expected in most squalls and the stationary squall containing rates towards 5-7cm/h. Widespread wind gusts between 50 and 70km/h will create blowing snow and hazardous driving conditions.
Blizzard conditions are likely which have prompted Environment Canada it issue a rare blizzard warning across portions of Southwestern Ontario.
Here is the current, most up-to-date blizzard warning. This will remain updated throughout the store.
All blizzard warnings have ended.
Road closures are expected and can be tracked here. There is an interactive map and list of closures found at the bottom of the page.
Bus cancellations and school closures are expected and a snow day forecast and a list of affected boards will be posted here. The forecast will be posted in the evening between 8pm and 12am. The list can forecast can be found in the middle of the page.
Areas in the pink and marked with a '6' can expect snowfall totals between 40 and 60cm with local amounts over 60cm. This extends from Lake near between Southampton and Sauble Beach extending through to Chatsworth and Markdale towards Shelburne. The majority of this region will see snowfall amounts of at least 40cm with pockets to 60cm where the exact snow squall sets up. Local amounts near or over 70cm might be possible if the squall can remain stationary for some time. IF the snow squall makes a shift north or south, this pink region will ALSO SHIFT with the squall.
Areas in the red and marked with a '5' can expect snowfall totals between 20 and 40cm. Across the north, snowfall totals between Sauble Beach extending into Owen Sound through to Singhampton and Tioga will see snowfall totals between 20 and 30cm. Local pockets over 30cm are possible, although the heaviest accumulation appears to remain south towards the pink region and below. South of the pink region extending from Southampton through to Shelburne south to Hanover and Kincardine can expect snowfall amounts near 30cm with locally more or less across the region in a range of 20-40cm. Pockets over 40cm may be possible just south of the pink region. Areas near Grand Valley, through to Hanover and Mildmay may see snowfall totals also around 30cm. Snowfall totals may be locally lower in this region as the heaviest squalls are expected to the north and south of this region. Amounts as low as 20cm are possible. Finally, areas across Huron-Perth can expect 25 to 35cm extending from Amberley through to Listowel including Brussels and Belgrave. Snowfall totals will range in this area with less towards the south and west and more towards the north. Pockets of 40cm or high are possible, although they will be isolated.
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 30cm. Across Simcoe County, this extends from Georgian Bay through to Lake Simcoe including Wasaga Beach and Midland. Snowfall totals will average between 15 and 20cm across this region although pockets towards 30cm may be possible between Horseshoe Valley and Balm Beach. Further south, snowfall totals extending from Wiarton through to Meaford, Duntroon, and Newton Robinson can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm. Most places across this region will average closer to the low end of the scale, although up to 30cm is certainly possible, especially extending inland from the strongest squall towards Bond Head and Schomberg. Towards the south, across Huron-Perth extending into Wellington County, including Goderich, Bayfield, Clinton, Exeter, Stratford, Minto, Arthur, and Orangeville, snowfall totals near 20cm are likely with pockets towards 30cm likely across the Minto-Arthur, Goderich-Clinton regions with amounts closer to 15cm likely towards Bayfield-Exter and Orangeville. Amounts will vary across the area and expect to range somewhere between 15 and 30cm.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 20cm. In Southwestern Ontario, this extends from Grand Bend through to Lucan and Kitchener where snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm are most likely. Amounts may reach towards 20cm closer towards Lucan, although this is questionable. Further east towards Elmira and Loretto will average near 10cm with pockets towards 15cm. Into Newmarket and Ballantrae, snowfall totals will average between 10 and 15cm although if the main snow squall can remain stationary, amounts towards 20cm are possible. This area may shift slightly north or south depending on the final location of the stationary squall. Along the shores of Georgian Bay extending from the Bruce Peninsula north of Wiarton through to Collingwood and Barrie. Amounts will average near 10cm. Locally less snowfall is possible towards 5cm between Collingwood and Barrie. Areas near Orillia through to Beaverton can expect amounts between 10 and 15cm as the Georgian Bay squall extends across Lake Simcoe.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 15cm. Towards Central Ontario, this includes a little patch between Parry Sound towards MacTier where local lake effect may produce between 4 and 8cm. Further south, snowfall across the Northern Bruce Peninsula will range between 5 and 10cm with pockets towards 15cm closer to Cape Croker. Towards the east, areas near Lindsay and Georgina through to Oshawa and Colborne can expect snowfall totals near 5cm. Amounts may range up towards 10cm closer to Lindsay and for areas north of Oshawa. This also includes southern Prince Edward County where snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm are possible with less snowfall further north into the county. This would include Milford.
Across the GTA and Southwestern Ontario, snowfall totals in Vaughan and Caledon through to Halton Hills and Guelph will range between 5 and 10cm with less towards the south and east and more towards the north and west. Pockets of snowfall will range up to 10cm. Isolated pockets near 15cm are possible closer towards Caledon, although this would be highly isolated. This range extends towards Woodstock and London extending into Aylmer and Lambton Shores where snow squalls will impact on Friday extending into Saturday. Amounts will range between 5 and 10cm. Isolated pockets towards 15cm are possible closer to Ilderton, although they would be highly isolated.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between a trace and 5cm. This includes the remaining portion of the region. Snowfall across Manitoulin Island may range between 5 and 10cm. Areas across the GTA extending from Toronto through to Oakville and Hamilton may see pockets of snow past 5cm as snow squalls shift in and out of the region. Areas near Fort Erie and the Southern Niagara region may see pockets also above 5cm towards 8cm from local snow squalls and flurries.
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