We are currently watching the risk for some non-severe thunderstorms across much of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba extending into Northwestern Ontario. Alongside this mainly non-severe risk, we are also watching the low risk for some conditional severe thunderstorms.
A line of showers and possible thunderstorms will be cross Southern Manitoba into Northwestern Ontario in the late morning into the early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop across Southern Saskatchewan and push eastward. These showers and thunderstorms will move from Southern Saskatchewan across Southern Manitoba extending into Northwestern Ontario. IF there is some clearing following the morning showers, which is questionable, across portions of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba as highlighted in the green or areas marked in a '2', then there will be the isolated risk of some strong to severe thunderstorms. Depending on how quickly the clouds can clear, the risk for severe thunderstorms may extend slightly north and possibly further west towards Regina and Yorkton. This is highly questionable based on weather information, therefore, we have not included in our forecast.
The main threats will all storms today will be moderate to heavy showers, gusty winds at times and small to possible moderate sized hail.
The best risk for severe thunderstorms, if any, alongside a non-zero tornado risk will extend in the 'Area of Interest' which runs from Saint Claude towards Morden and Turtle Mountain Park, including Glenboro and everything in between.
Areas further towards the north and east have a lower chance at seeing thunderstorms in general, severe or not. This includes all of Northwestern Ontario highlighted areas and all highlighted areas north of a line from Duck Mountain Park to Steep Rock to Wanipigow to Nopiming Park.
For Northern Ontario, it is questionable whether storms will make it into the region. If they do, it is also questionable how far east they go. Certain models take the storms straight to Lake Superior while other models don't have the storms making it even to the Manitoba/Ontario border. For this reason, our risk map has been placed directly in the middle of the two situations.
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Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec Thunderstorm Forecast: https://www.weatherwatch.space/post/scattered-showers-and-non-severe-thunderstorms-possible-in-southern-ontario