We have updated our forecast to better align with expected squall locations from today's data as well as updated snowfall totals. Updated forecast: https://www.weatherwatcher.space/post/updated-multi-day-snow-squall-outbreak-across-the-great-lakes
Original Forecast:
We are closely watching a multi-day snow squall outbreak across all of the Great Lakes with the strongest squalls set to impact Ontario.
As these snow squalls will be fairly narrow, a slight change in location will completely throw the forecast off. As squalls develop and setup (and at times become stationary), we will update our forecast to match the exact location of the squall for accuracy. Stay tuned for updates on our social media pages.
We have made numerous localized maps for these snow squalls. Scroll down in the article to find the map which best fits your region.
Niagara:
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm. This extends along the extreme south shores of Lake Erie between Fort Erie and Crystal Beach. A strong snow squall will set up over the lake and bring heavy snow to portions of New York state near Buffalo. As the squall shifts north and south throughout Wednesday into Thursday, the squall may briefly sit over the Niagara region at times. If the squall remains south of the region more than what the models show, snowfall totals will be limited to around 5cm.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This extends from Black Creek and Douglastown through to Dain City, Port Colborne, and Long Beach. As stated above, snowfall totals may be limited to only 2-5cm if the squall remains further south than currently forecasted over the next few days. Over Long Point Park, snowfall totals between 5-10cm are expected.
Elsewhere, areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between a trace or 0 to 5cm.
Prince Edward County:
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This extends from Sandbanks through to Picton, Port Milford, Kingston, and even as far inland as Gananoque. Most areas will see near 5cm. The remaining green (2) on the map is explained in the Southwestern Ontario map.
Elsewhere, areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between a trace or 0 to 5cm.
Southwestern Ontario (Parry Sound-Tobermory South):
Areas in the red and marked with a '5' can expect snowfall totals between 20 and 30cm with local amounts between 30 and 40cm. This includes Parry Sound inland towards McKellar, Hurdville, Orrville, and Woods Bay. This area also extends from Christian Island through to Kettle's Beach, Waubaushene, Forest Harbour, Coldwater, and Cumberland Beach. Snowfall totals will average around 20-25cm in this area although stationary snow squalls could leave up to 35 and 40cm for areas especially near Parry Sound and between Longford and Coldwater in Simcoe County.
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm. This extends across much of the Bruce Peninsula between Southampton and Lion's Head, including Owen Sound. Areas towards the east between Bayfield Inlet, Dunchurch, Burk's Falls, MacTier, Port Severn, Orillia, Lagoon City, and Midland can expect snowfall totals near 20-25cm with local amounts as high as 30cm.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm. This region extends from Northern Huron County near Port Albert, Wingham and Amberley through Bruce and Grey Counties including Kincardine, Hanover, Markdale and Tobermory. Snowfall totals around 10cm are possible with up to 15 and even 20cm possible closer to the orange regions and near Kincardine and Walkerton. In Central Ontario, around 10cm is expected between Collingwood and Barrie extending towards Beaverton with up to 15 and 20cm near Balm Beach. Areas like Torrance, Port Carling, Gravenhurst, Raymond, Sprucedale, Pickerel Lake and Bayfield Inlet can expect up to 15cm with local amounts near 20cm.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This is expected from Bayfield and Clinton through to Elmira, Goderich, Listowel, Orangeville, Guelph, Newmarket, Lindsay, Kawartha Lakes, Minden, Haliburton, Huntsville and Algonquin Park. A majority of the region will only see amounts near 5cm. Areas such as Huntsville, Kawartha Lakes, Lindsay, Minto, and near Wingham could see locally higher amounts between 10-15cm of snow.
Elsewhere, areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between a trace or 0 to 5cm.
Central Ontario (Parry Sound-Tobermory North):
Areas in the red and marked with a '5' can expect snowfall totals between 20 and 30cm with local amounts between 30 and 40cm. This includes Parry Sound inland towards McKellar, Hurdville, Orrville, and Woods Bay. Snowfall totals will average around 20-25cm in this area although stationary snow squalls could leave up to 35 and 40cm for areas especially near Parry Sound and between Longford and Coldwater in Simcoe County. Review the Northern Ontario forecast for Lake Superior squalls.
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm. This extends across much of the Bruce Peninsula between Southampton and Lion's Head, including Owen Sound. Areas towards the east between Bayfield Inlet, Dunchurch, Burk's Falls, MacTier, and Port Severn, can expect snowfall totals near 20-25cm with local amounts as high as 30cm. Review the Northern Ontario forecast for Lake Superior squalls.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm. This region extends from Tobermory over Manitoulin Island as well as between Torrance, Port Carling, Gravenhurst, Raymond, Sprucedale, Pickerel Lake and Bayfield Inlet with up to 15cm expected. Local amounts near 20cm. A majority of Manitoulin Island through to Britt will mainly see between 10 and 15cm. Review the Northern Ontario forecast for Lake Superior squalls.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This is expected for North Bay, West Nipissing, Monetville, Port Loring, Haliburton, Huntsville and Algonquin Park. Areas such as Huntsville and Kawartha Lakes could see locally higher amounts near 15cm of snow. Review the Northern Ontario forecast for Lake Superior squalls.
Elsewhere, areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between a trace or 0 to 5cm. Review the Northern Ontario forecast for Lake Superior squalls.
Northern Ontario:
Areas in the red and marked with a '5' can expect snowfall totals between 20 and 30cm with local amounts between 30 and 40cm. This extends from Lake Superior Park through to Agawa Bay, Montreal River Harbour, Batachawana, and Goulais Bay. Snowfall totals will average near 25 and 30cm. Areas near Montreal River Harbour towards Batchawana Bay could see local amounts between 35 and 45cm with other places seeing local amounts between 30 and 40cm.
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect snowfall totals between 15 and 20cm. This extends around the red region and includes Island Lake, just north of Heyden.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect snowfall totals between 10 and 15cm. This region includes Heyden and Michipicoten River. On Lake Nipigon, areas between Beardmore and the lake could also see snowfall amounts near or slightly above 10cm.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect snowfall totals between 5 and 10cm. This is expected over Beardmore as well as areas slight north, south and east. For Lake Superior, this includes Searchmont, Sault Ste. Marie, Wawa, and St. Joseph Island where snowfall amounts will mainly sit around 5cm.
Elsewhere, areas in blue and marked with a '1' can expect snowfall totals between a trace or 0 to 5cm.
We will continue to monitor the situation and update as needed.
There is the risk of road closures and school closures over the next few days so make sure to frequent check out social media pages for updates forecasts and live-report information.