We are watching two areas of severe thunderstorm today across Northern Ontario and the potential for some localized flooding and funnel clouds in Southern Ontario.
Across Northern Ontario, we are watching two areas of possible severe thunderstorms. The first area is in Northwestern Ontario while the second is in Far Northeastern Ontario.
We are watching for a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms between Fort Frances and Gull Bay, including Upsala and Igance. We are most confident in this region to produce severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts between 70 and 90km/h and large hail between 1.5 and 3cm. This is highlighted in yellow and marked with a '3'.
Expanding outside of this region, we have highlighted the area for a low risk of severe thunderstorms. This is highlighted in green and marked with a '2'. This expands from Lake of the Woods through to Sioux Lookout and Wabakimi Park. This also includes an area between Quietico Park and Thunder Bay, including Dorion and Cloud Bay. These areas are likely to see between 1 and 2.5cm hail as well as damaging winds between 70 and 90km/h. There is a non-zero tornado risk expanding from Fort Frances into the Upsala and Shebandowan region. Portions of this region are under a severe thunderstorm watch.
The second area we are watching is in Far Northeastern Ontario expanding from Onakawana and Kesagami Park towards the east, including Moosonee. This area is at risk of seeing some moderate to large hail between 1 and 2cm. Damaging wind gusts near 90km/h. It is questionable if storms will even develop today in this region, although, if they do, they pose a low severe risk. This is highlighted in green and marked with a '2'.
Elsewhere highlighted in blue and marked with a '1', non-severe thunderstorms are possible.
Along the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shores today, multiple lake breeze storms are expected to develop. These 'pulse' storms may training and be slow moving. Heavy rain between 20 and 60mm is possible. Locally higher totals in isolated cells may also be a factor. This can be seen by the blue area which is marked with a '1'. This risk area includes Sarnia, Windsor, Chatham, London, Niagara Falls, Kitchener, Woodstock, Newmarket, Brampton, Peterborough, Tamworth, and Uxbridge.
In the 'area of interest,' we are noticing an elevated risk for an isolated funnel cloud or two. These funnel clouds normally don't touch the ground, but if they do, they are often short-lived and weak. They are still tornadoes though and need to be treated with caution. This risk area includes Brantford, London, St. Thomas, Chatham, Newbury and, Windsor.