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Severe Thunderstorms Possible in Ontario and Quebec; Isolated Tornado Threat

We are currently watching the risk of some severe thunderstorms across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario as well as portions of Southern Quebec.

Southern Ontario:

Thunderstorm Forecast, for Southern Ontario. Issued June 26th, 2019.

In Southern Ontario, we are tracking the risk for some isolated severe thunderstorms across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, including portions of the Golden Horseshoe.


Firstly, areas between south and east of a line which extends from Windsor and Chatham over towards Brantford, Vaughan, Orillia, and Huntsville can expect the risk of some isolated thunderstorms. This includes Toronto and Algonquin Park. These thunderstorms are highlighted in blue or marked with a '1'. They are likely to remain non-severe with wind gusts between 40 and 70km/h, small hail and heavy rain. Not all areas will see thunderstorms due to the isolated nature of them.


Next, areas highlighted in green or marked with a '2' have a low risk of seeing some severe thunderstorms. This includes portions the Niagara region, including Dunnville, as well as portions of Central and Eastern Ontario such as Woodview, Denbigh and Cobden. The main threats with these storms will be wind gusts between 60 and 90km/h, and small to moderate sized hail (1 to 1.5cm). Heavy rain is also a concern. Not all areas will see thunderstorms due to the isolated nature of them.


Finally, areas highlighted in yellow or marked with a '3' have a moderate risk at seeing some severe thunderstorms. This area extends from Cobourg and Peterborough through Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, Perth and Plevna, this also includes Arnprior. This area can expect isolated severe thunderstorms producing wind gusts between 80 and 100km/h, heavy rain and hail between 1 and 2cm. Areas in the Far East such as Ottawa, Cornwall, Hawkesbury and Smiths Falls are also included in this risk area. They also have the risk of seeing an isolated tornado or two. This is seen in the 'area of interest'. Not all areas will see thunderstorms due to the isolated nature of them.


Quebec:

Thunderstorm Forecast, for Southern Quebec. Issued June 26th, 2019.

We are watching a large area of Southern Quebec today for the risk of some isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.


Firstly, areas extending from between Lac-Caugnawana and Fort-Coulonge are in a pocket of non-severe thunderstorms. Otherwise, areas between the Maine border extending north in a line from Pohenegamook through Forestville, Lac Gaillard, Manic-Cinq and Lac Hanctin through to the Ontario border and James Bay can expect thunderstorms, mainly non-severe. These thunderstorms are highlighted in blue or marked with a '1'. This area also includes a small patch into Northern Quebec which extends from Lac Pivert and Lac Hanctin through to Nitchequon and Lac Bienville. The main risks with these storms include small hail and strong winds between 60 and 80km/h. Heavy rain is also expected.


Next, we are watching an area of a 'low' severe thunderstorm risk. This extends from Sherbrooke and Stanstead through Portneuf and La Tuque into Roberval and Timbrell. This area also extends from Fort-Coulonge through to Lac Dumoine and Val-d'Or. Finally, this risk extends from Lucky Rock and Joutel over to Lac Beaucours and Obedjiwan. These areas can expect some isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threats include wind gusts between 70 and 90km/h, briefly 100km/h, hail sizes between 1 and 2cm and heavy rain. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out in this region, but that is more likely in the 'area of interest.'


Finally, we are watching an area with a 'moderate' risk of severe thunderstorms. This risk extends from Ontario through to Dorval-Lodge and Lac McLennan over to Lac Devenyns and Louisville, including Sabrevois, Gatineau and Montreal. The thunderstorms are likely to be scattered. The main threats include wind gusts between 80 and 100km/h, hail between 1 and 2cm and heavy rain. This is also the risk of an isolated tornado. In the 'area of interest', there is special concern for the risk of an isolated tornado or two. This risk extends from Ontario to Mont-Tremblant Park over to Sabrevois, including Montreal, Gatineau and Huntingdon.


Northern Ontario:

Thunderstorm Forecast, for Northern Ontario. Issued June 26th, 2019.

In Northern Ontario, we are tracking the risk for some isolated severe thunderstorms across a small portion of Northeastern Ontario, otherwise, non-severe thunderstorms are expected.


Firstly, non-severe thunderstorms are possible from Manitoba to Quebec through Ontario. Areas between a line which extends from Deer Lake through to Fort Hope and Moosonee and a line which extend from Kenora to Nestor Falls, Mine Centre, Dorion, Marathon and Sault Ste Marie can expect non-severe thunderstorms. Not all areas will see thunderstorms due to the isolated nature of them. The main threats with these storms include the 40-70km/h, small hail and heavy rain. A brief severe thunderstorm may develop. The best risk for this to happen would be east of Hearst, Peterbell and Smoky Falls. There is also a notable isolated tornado risk between Sault Ste. Marie and Elliot Lake, but, we are not expecting storms to develop. If an isolated storm does develop and strengthens quickly, this will be an area to watch.


We are watching a small pocket between Temiskaming Shores and North Bay, including Temagami for a low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm. The main threats if a severe thunderstorm develops includes heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail (1-1.5cm) and strong wind gusts between 70 and 90km/h. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

We will be watching closely today!

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