We are watching a strengthening system across Northern Ontario which will bring 15 to 30cm of snow and a wide swath of freezing rain extending into Eastern Ontario.
Snowfall
Blue or '1':
Areas in the blue or marked with a '1' can expect less than 5cm of snow. This includes portions of Far Northern Ontario such as Moosonee, Fort Albany and Attawapiskat. Areas located further north than this such as Big Trout Lake and Fort Severn can expect less than 3cm with most places seeing flurries or nothing at all. Areas further towards the south such as Kenora, Vermillion Bay, Ignace, English River, Nipigon, Thunder Bay, Shebandowan, White River, Wawa, Chapleau, Gowganda, Temiskaming Shores, and Ruel can all expect between 1 and 3, locally 5cm of snow. Areas further south then this line can expect less than 3cm or nothing at all.
Green or '2':
Areas in the green or marked with a '2' can expect between 5 and 15cm of snow. This includes an area between Kirkland Lake/Englehart extending through Timmins, Peterbell and into Hornepayne. Further west, this area also includes Carmat, Longlac and Geraldton extending west towards Gull Bay, Savant Lake, Sioux Lookout, Perrault Falls and Red Lake. Towards the north, this area also includes Sandy Lake, Missisa Lake, Webequie and Kingfisher Lake. Most places should see a general 5 to 10cm of snow. Areas towards the north like Red Lake, Savant Lake, Longlac and Hornepayne can expect amounts between 10 and 15cm of snow.
Yellow or '3':
Areas in the yellow or marked with a '3' can expect between 15 and 30cm of snow. This includes a swath of Northern Ontario extending into and including Cochrane, Matheson, Kapuskasing, Fraserdale, Onakawana, Hearst, Mammamattawa, Fort Hope, Armstrong, Pickle Lake, Cat Lake, Pikangikum, Deer Lake and Summer Beaver. Most areas should see between 15 and 20cm of snow. We have placed an 'Area of Interest' across this region including Cat Lake, Pickle Lake, Wabakimi Park, Fort Hope, Mammamattawa, Smoke Falls and Fraserdale. In this area, snowfall totals may reach towards 25 or even 30cm of snow. There is some question whether snowfall amounts will reach even towards 40cm of snow. This is most likely over Smoke Falls/Mammamattawa as well as Cat Lake/Pickle Lake. We have not included this region on the map as a new legend color due to the low confidence, although the chance is certainly there, hence, the 'Area of Interest'.
Freezing Rain
Blue or '1':
Areas in the blue or marked with a '1' can expect less than 2mm of ice accretion. This includes a small portion of Northern and Eastern Ontario. This includes Pikangikum, Pagwa, Hearst, Kapukasing and Cochrane. There is some question if the freezing line will push this far north, either way, we have highlighted the small risk area. Towards the south, this includes Grassy Narrows, English River, Upsala, Shebandowan, Agawa Bay, Batchawana Bay, Ranger Lake, Sudbury, North Bay and Mattawa. Most of these listed places will see nothing or a trace although local amounts towards 2mm are possible in the hardest hit areas in this region. In Eastern Ontario, this area includes parts of Algonquin Park, Perth and Morrisburg.
Green or '2':
Areas in the green or marked with a '2' can expect between 2 and 5mm of ice accretion. This includes portions of Northern and Eastern Ontario. This includes Uchi Lake, Sioux Lookout, Savant Lake, Armstrong, Thunder Bay, Nakina, Iroquois Falls, Ruel and Temagami. Most of these listed places will see 2 to 4mm of ice accretion although locally higher amounts towards 5 or even 6mm are possible for areas near Ruel and Temagami. Areas such as Armstrong, Nakina and Thunder Bay, lesser amounts towards 1 to 3mm are likely. In Eastern Ontario, this area of 1 to 3, locally 4mm of ice includes Bancroft, Plevna and Cornwall.
Yellow or '3':
Areas in the yellow or marked with a '3' can expect between 5 and 10mm of ice accretion. This includes portions of Northwestern Ontario including Red Lake, Ears Falls and Woodland Caribou Park. Local amounts between 10 and 15mm are possible. Further east including Dorion, Wawa, Matheson and Sultan, a widespread 4 to 8mm of ice can be expected with local amounts towards 10mm. Areas such as Dorion or Wawa, may see locally less amounts between 2 and 5mm, although, there is just enough confidence to include them in the next level. In Eastern Ontario, this includes a large swath of the region. This includes most of Algonquin Park, Pembroke, Barry's Bay, Renfrew, Calabogie, Ottawa, Alexandria, Kemptville and Hawkesbury. Locally higher amounts between 10 and 15mm are possible over Algonquin Park and between Ottawa, Hawkesbury and Alexandria.
Orange or '4':
Areas in the orange or marked with a '4' can expect between 10 and 15mm of ice accretion. This includes a swath of Northern Ontario extending from Gull Bay into Nipigon, Carmat, Marathon, Hornepayne, White River, Chapleau, Timmins and Temiskaming Shores. We have added an 'Area of Interest' over this region where 15 to 25mm of ice accretion may be possible This includes everything from Lake Nipigon extending through Manitouwadge, White River, Peterbell, Chapleay, Gowganda and Temiskaming Shores. There is some confidence that this region will see the locally higher amounts although, there is not enough confidence to include this region in the next level up.
Rainfall
A widespread 15 to 30mm, locally 30 to 50mm can expected along the shores of Lake Superior such as Wawa, Marathon, Nipigon and Thunder Bay. A widespread 5 to 15mm, locally 20mm can be expected over Northwestern Ontario such as Fort Frances and Atikokan. In Southern Ontairo, 5 to 15, locally 20mm can expected along the shores of Lake Huron extending south towards Lake Erie and towards Lake Ontario. Local thunderstorms are also possible throughout all the areas listed.