We are currently watching the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern Manitoba and into Far Northern and Northwestern Ontario.
We are expecting a line of thunderstorms to form south of Lake Manitoba and extend south to Cartwright. This line of thunderstorms is expected to move east over Emerson and Winnipeg before weakening east of Vita. This line may extend further north of Lake Manitoba towards Jackhead and O'Hanly, including everything in between. This line will start as single cells before quickly merging into a line of storms. These storms in the north will push into Northwestern and Far Northern Ontario near Little Grand Rapids and Walkus Lake region, in Manitoba. In Ontario, this region includes Pikangikum, Sandy Lake and Deer Lake. There is some question how far south this risk extends, therefore, we have left Woodland Caribou Park along the edge of this line. This described region is included in the moderate/yellow/3 region. The main threats in this region include damaging wind gusts near or over 100km/h, large hail between 2-4cm in diameter and heavy rain producing 50mm or more in a short period of time. In the initial stages of storm development or storms which remain isolated, an isolated tornado threat may develop throughout the region.
In Manitoba, there is a low risk of storm develop slightly further north and west of the current expected development range. This is highlighted in the low/green/2 risk which includes Garden Hill, Eriksdale and Cartwright. In the southeast portion of the province, storms are expected to weaken to strong or sub-severe with a low risk of severe storms. This region includes Atikaki Park extending into Bissett, Ste. Anne and Vita. Into Ontario, the risk is lower for severe thunderstorms further north and east of the previously listed regions. This includes Sachigo Lake, Weagamow Lake, Cat Lake, Uchi Lake, Kenora, Ears Falls and Red Lake. These areas may see severe thunderstorms throughout the evening and overnight, although the risk is low.
Finally, non-severe thunderstorms are expected across most of Manitoba and all of Far Northern Ontario with the risk extending south into Northwestern Ontario. These thunderstorms should remain all non-severe although a very isolated thunderstorm may become strong or even sub-severe/severe.
These listed areas of Manitoba and Ontario, including areas further east in Ontario, will need to watch the risk for more severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Saturday) evening. The threats are very similar to today.
Please let us know what you're experiencing!